The rain was coming down in the first of January (January), when it became Dilma Rousseff, the first woman president of Brazil. However, the former Marxist revolutionary, aged 63 years seems optimistic, smiling and waving her hand from Rolls-Royce Model 1953, which brought her to Congress, coupled with a security force composed of all elements of women.
At the inauguration, praised Roussef Bmrushdha, which outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. She Rousseff, as the President and his former prime minister, highlighted the progress that has been made during his two terms, specifically the reduction of poverty.
She said then that there is still much work to be done.She said:''improved many things in Brazil, but that these are only the beginning of a new era''.
That was the end of the mission's mandate for a period of eight-year Silva. There is no doubt that it is expected that Brazil's economy grows, the eighth largest economy in the world, with 5 per cent this year.
Brazilians are increasingly self-confident, and also increases the confidence of the State itself. Ten years ago, Brazil was on the sidelines of global decision-making process. And now it is close to the center.
And fed such accomplishments paranoia he felt sometimes Lula da Silva - for example when he claimed that he''did something unprecedented in the history of the State''. (While the allegations of this nature is commendable abroad, but they cause distress at home: 60 per cent of the electorate Brazilians either abstained or voted for the person who is not Roussef, his successor, chosen by himself, in the elections of October (October) the past).
However, as Roussef implicitly recognizes, the success of Brazil, which boasts not safe as it may seem.
One of the most vulnerable areas lie in the economic model to its predecessor. This model combines the easy politics of public finance, which has strengthened the demand, with high interest rates, which have kept inflation low. At the political level, this model was very successful.
It has also led to high growth. In fact, given the high government spending by 44 per cent by Nomura estimates that happened during the past 12 months compared to 2008, how can not lead to that?
However, one of the unfortunate consequences is a strong currency. Since the beginning of 2009, Brazil's real rose, after accounting for inflation, dropped by one third, to the detriment of local Palmsenain. It is unfortunate results of the other is to increase the current account deficit in Brazil. This is equivalent to the deficit, now more than 3 per cent of GDP.
If increased more than that, could collapse Brazil. It is clear that monetary policy is very lenient in the West - which is part of the so-called''wars''currencies - is not a factor useful in this regard. But also the Brazilian interest rates are not considered useful. Are those prices, amounting to 10.75 per cent are still on the rise, among the highest in the world.
Should be dealing with such problems a strength Rousseff. While the figure of Lula da Silva, attractive and popular, the general character reflect the technocratic grim. And her economic team to like her very much.Valmzar academic Tombini Alexander, the new president of the Central Bank, elegance and style of excessive Wall Street to Antonio Palocci, Chief President, may contradict the popular image of Brazil as a nation of lazy beachgoers. But most Brazilians live far away from the sea.
Will Roussef engine austerity necessary to reduce the high interest rates and devaluation? (In addition to other reforms equally important, if less urgent - such as simplifying the tax system in the gorge, where the company needs for the regular 2600 hours per year - ie 324 working days - to complete the data and transactions tax).
One of the reasons that suggest they may do so is that, as a director of tough love to get what you want, they understand the need for change. The main reason for the continued rise in public spending that began last year, no elections, no longer exists. Has been win.
One of the reasons why we think they may not do so is to Roussef, which lacks the magic of the dominant figure, which was enjoyed by Lula da Silva, Sottaghd to pass spending cuts across the coalition partners with her. The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, the largest of its allies, take from now complaining about the allocation of ministerial portfolios. It is possible to oppose Rousseff, now plans to put ceilings on increases in the minimum wage.
Things are at stake is the very important things, and in all respects. If succeeded Rousseff to take advantage of the estate of Lula da Silva and build on it, history will remember that he is a hero. If it failed, it is possible that back in 2014 to run again for the presidency, in order to''save''the country. But if this happens, you will not be among the semi-mythical image that sees them sometimes. Worse than that, any rain fall on his motorcade Sthtal the country as well.
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