About two years ago she visited Damascus, a senior figure from a major Western country to discuss improving relations. At the end of the section of the official visit, called on the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, the guest to the banquet dinner with the wives intimate. They sat and talked until late at night, open jackets, no ties and no records of consultants and registrars. He revealed his heart reservoirs Assad said: 'My problem is that every year half a million Syrians up to the age of 18, and have no hope or work '.
Assad knows, then, that under his chair simmering social time bomb endanger the internal stability in Syria. But did not do enough to change this situation and gives hope for the youth of his country.Instead of offering them future opportunities and braking of the dictatorship of the soon-Assad focused on the cosmetic frills. He ran an international campaign for re-classification of Syria as a secular and Western depending on the image of his wife, the names of the adjacent .
The campaign reached its peak in the report of the presidential interesting about the couple published in the fashion magazine 'Vogue' at the beginning of the current year. And everything seemed perfect, with the exception of timing: whether the interview was published, even revolted young stateless future and comfort against the authority .
Picture of lion plays with dolls look like children in the back look miserable joke when approaching the number of funerals for the opponents of the regime in Syria and more than 1,500 of the tens of thousands of refugees crossed the border into Turkey .
And discovered the editors 'Vogue' for surprise that the Father is the beloved, in fact, a brutal tyrant and a criminal, embarrassing Vhtaboa report from the website of the magazine. At the presidential palace in Damascus has also stopped the campaign; Facebook page for the names of the lion, which documented the trips the couple were last updated a month ago .
Assad, the young man disappointed his supporters in the West who saw the 'reformist' and hung it in the hope mindless. At the moment the test acted exactly like his father and his allies such as Iran and the payment of his security forces against demonstrators. In his speech, Assad said this week that he would not give up but did not propose a 'national dialogue' is empty of content in order to relieve him of some of the pressure .
Assad will remain in the meantime, in power for three reasons: his opponents have not succeeded in gathering enough strength not yet reached into the heart of major cities; army maintains agglutination ranks, and for loyalty to the President; Russia and Iran Tattiyah Cold MD from abroad and the U.S. administration to refrain from calling outright for his removal and the only Bhdhir fiddler for 'reform '.
Protesters in Egypt, brought hundreds of thousands of people to the field in central Cairo, and overthrew President Hosni Mubarak. Revolution taking place in Syria in the sub-cities, which is easy to siege and the expulsion of international media about the slaughter of its inhabitants. This is the strategy he learned from his father, Bashar, Hafez al-Assad: 'besieged and kill '.
Partial success. Despite his determination to rule and the brutality of his soldiers, the lion does not succeed in defeating the intifada. Revolutionaries aware of the inferiority of their power over the fire and the ability of the movement of the army, which controls the central axes of traffic, so they chose a strategy of attrition. For their part, the most important is to show adherence to the goal and not to surrender. As an alternative to gather strength in Damascus, protesting at the same time in different cities to disperse the forces Assad and keep the fire burning revolution .
Revolutionaries certainly hope that if they and Azbwa, the wave will arise in the army fled and the lion will fall. Unlike their counterparts in Libya, they can not rely on international support. One will not come from America or Europe to bomb their behalf Assad's palace and in any event, this invention has not worked so far against Muammar Gaddafi also .
Swing
But even if the intifada was in Syria are still far from resolved, it has now caused a change in the balance of power in the Middle East. Valrih reversed: in the case of Iran fell, and Israel strengthened again. Concerns raised by Israel in the first wave of the 'Arab Spring' calm down gradually, and shifts in the neighboring countries to take a picture now, the strategic opportunity .
Point turnaround in the region recorded the previous five years ago, in the second Lebanon war.Failure in the military confrontation with Hezbollah revealed vulnerable Israelis and led to enhance Iran, which sponsors Hassan Nasrallah. And documented the lion alliance military, political and economic ties with the rulers of Tehran. Hezbollah took control of Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and moved away from Turkey and Israel are close to Iran and Syria and Hamas .
From Israel's perspective, the situation is only intensified in the last year. The issue of the Turkish fleet to the Gaza Strip caused a public rift between Jerusalem and Ankara, with the fall of Mubarak Israel also lost the strategic alliance with Egypt remained isolated and afraid. Alternative that he found the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to get close to Greece, went bankrupt, can not replace the Ankara and Cairo .
This week, it seems that the strategy tends swing in the opposite direction. Iran, torn in the internal conflicts in its leadership, is trying to save a chair-Assad. If it fell, the Iranians would lose their most important ally, point to build regional influence .
In Israel exploited the situation to feed the international media reports about the Iranian role in the profound suppression of demonstrators in Syria, Assad needs a boost from abroad to fight for his life.
Turkey did not wait for the fall of Assad and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stop at the top of his opponents Alalnyen. Erdogan condemned the acts of slaughter in Syria and Assad follow the request of the reforms. Turks reportedly disappointed to Assad's speech on Monday, and the warnings which he responded. The message is clear: calm in the relationship between Damascus and Ankara came to an end, and with it also the policy of 'zero conflicts with neighbors' led by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. The story ended. Now return to power struggles and conflicts known before. 'Iran and Turkey have fought over control and influence in Syria', analyzes the Israeli expert on Middle East Affairs .
When Turkey is grappling with Iran, they close again from Israel and the United States, the Iranians increasingly more foes in the battle to control and influence in the Middle East. On Monday, Erdogan talked by telephone with President Barack Obama, after a few hours of Assad's speech. According to the Turkish statement, the conversation focused on Syria, Libya, and also addressed the peace process 'as a significant factor in the stability of the region'. The two men expressed their support for 'legitimate demands' of the demonstrators and the Syrians agreed that 'a vigil closely' the situation in Syria. The next day published a telegram sent by the Turks Netanyahu to Erdogan, congratulating him on his overwhelming victory in elections, and proposed to resolve all open issues between the two countries .
The longer his reign, it is clear that Erdogan's best diplomat in the region, if not in the international community as a whole. No like volatility and maneuvers among the great powers and the States, that Turkey is growing and strengthened his rule. Current betrayal of Assad, his friend the good from yesterday, remember exactly fluctuations in its relations with the leaders of Israel .
He can allow himself: control of the Black Sea straits and the eastern basin of the Mediterranean, Turkey has a unique geopolitical position .
Erdogan simply continue the traditions started during the reign of the Hittites, Byzantines, the Ottomans continued. In his book 'a comprehensive strategy for the Byzantine Empire', which was released last year, showed the American scholar Edward Otfak how emperors of Constantinople refrained from war and relied on diplomatic contacts and shifting alliances of the existence of their empire, which affected her days more than any other empire in history .
Without isolation
Netanyahu works similarly. Is also the preferred words on the war. Erdogan and his message to the attempts at reconciliation between the two indicates that Wants to renew the alliance with Turkey, a natural partner for Israel over the Arab world and Iran .
This week, this attempt will stand the test of the new fleet to Gaza. Will refrain Turks and cancel the fleet? You will start in his path, you fighters marine unit will carry out control work, which showed it to the media and once again become travelers ships? Or that the preparatory work and ironing of the deadly confrontation in the past year will lead to calm?
Canceled if the fleet or quietly over, can Netanyahu and Erdogan are to advance towards the restoration of relations from the effects of previous Alachtaalat. Mutual interest exists. But if the story repeated itself last summer, the relations will be at risk. Save it is the joint test of Netanyahu and Erdogan .
Sense to breathe a sigh of relief in Israel to break isolation, the collapse of the Syrian regime and the weakness of the enemy of Iran and clear this week in the prophecies of the Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Assad's public fall from power within a half years .
Mossad chief, Meir Dagan imagine the fall of the regime. Senior officials in the political establishment and security speak in praise of democracy in Arab countries, not only warn of the risk of becoming Muslim and the disintegration of the existing system, as they did in the previous half year .
At its peak, as in his demise, Syria's Assad proved central in the system of regional powers, and their ability to tipping the balance of power in the ocean. If replaced by another system pro-America, Israel can settle the dispute on the border in the Golan and rely on 'Spectrum North' Syria and Turkey in the struggle against Iran, as an alternative, or complement, which has weakened the alliance with Egypt .
Seems that the Egyptians also understand the strategic shifts: the talk about the resumption of relations with Tehran, has faded, has hosted this week Yitzhak Molcho, Netanyahu's envoy. No one wants to remain alone in the Middle East .
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